In a dramatic escalation of regional hostilities, Pakistan has suspended the historic Simla Agreement signed in 1972, further deepening tensions with India following the recent massacre of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. India alleges that the attack was orchestrated by militants with ties to Pakistan, prompting swift retaliatory measures from both sides.
India has expelled Pakistani nationals utilizing the SAARC visa exemption scheme, shuttered several border crossings, and imposed restrictions on water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty. In response, Pakistan issued a stern warning, declaring that any attempt to divert water allocated under the treaty would be seen as an “Act of War,” warranting a full-spectrum response.
Following a meeting of its National Security Committee, Pakistan officially placed all bilateral agreements with India under suspension, including the Simla Agreement. The statement accused India of persistently violating international conventions and fomenting terrorism within Pakistan. Airspace was closed to Indian carriers, and all trade—including third-party trade via Pakistan—was halted indefinitely.
Diplomatic relations have also deteriorated, with both countries recalling diplomats and military attachés. While tensions have ebbed and flowed in past years, the current trajectory signals potentially uncharted and dangerous territory.
Analysts have warned that the breakdown of bilateral frameworks could lead to a fundamental redrawing of regional relations. One Indian commentator noted that with the erosion of the post-World War II rules-based order and the rise of authoritarian nationalism, the India-Pakistan conflict risks spiraling into a broader geopolitical crisis.
The editorial also referenced the diminished role of Western powers in the Kashmir conflict, contrasting it with China’s growing strategic interest in the region. Meanwhile, cross-border exchanges of fire have resumed along the Line of Control, signaling rising hostilities on the ground.
Historically, tensions like these have brought the two nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of war, with global powers such as the U.S. previously stepping in to de-escalate. Whether similar diplomatic interventions will emerge amid a changing global order remains to be seen.