Sri Lanka sees stable arrivals despite regional conflict, with industry optimistic about July-August rebound
Sri Lanka’s tourism sector is showing notable tourism resilience, remaining largely unaffected by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. According to Tourism Deputy Minister Ruwan Ranasinghe, there have been no significant changes in tourist arrivals, aside from the usual seasonal dip typical during this time of year.
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, including the recent entry of the United States into the conflict with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Sri Lankan tourism industry continues to operate steadily. “There has been no change in arrivals aside from the usual dip experienced at this time of the year,” Ranasinghe confirmed, emphasizing that there have also been no reported booking cancellations.
International flight routes have been adjusted due to the conflict, with long-haul flights from the European Union and the UK now funneled through two narrow corridors: one flying over Turkey and the Black Sea, and the other across Egypt and Saudi Arabia. These reroutes have impacted airlines across the region, including Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and others, which have modified their routes to avoid active conflict zones.
Nevertheless, Ranasinghe noted that the tourism industry remains confident. “We expect arrivals from the EU, India, and China to pick up between July and August. We won’t be revising the tourism target,” he said.
Supporting this optimistic outlook, First Capital, a capital markets advisory firm, projected that Sri Lanka could surpass its pre-crisis tourism peak from 2018, when the country welcomed 2.3 million visitors. The government’s target for 2025 remains at an ambitious three million tourists.
Between January and April 2025, Sri Lanka earned $1.37 billion in tourism revenue — a 10.2% increase year-on-year, according to the Central Bank’s External Sector Performance bulletin. This steady growth reinforces the country’s ability to weather external shocks, including geopolitical instability, and underlines its tourism resilience.
While some countries in the region, such as Thailand, have reported declines in Middle Eastern tourist arrivals, Sri Lanka’s market remains stable. With improved air connectivity and rising interest from key markets, the tourism sector appears poised to stay on track, even in the face of broader global uncertainty.