SLTDA has announced that future tourism targets in Sri Lanka will be based on verified, scientific data rather than outdated assumptions, ensuring accuracy in revenue forecasting and reflecting real tourist spending, arrivals, and economic impact.
SLTDA confirms future tourism targets will rely on scientific data, not assumptions
The Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) is taking a major step toward data-driven policymaking in the tourism sector by shifting future targets to a scientifically validated framework. Chairman Buddika Hewawasam confirmed that previous methods based on outdated surveys and assumptions would be replaced with a fully verified system, providing a more accurate picture of the industry’s performance.
Earlier projections had suggested tourism earnings of between US $4.5 billion and US $5 billion for 2026, following an estimated US $3.2 billion earned last year. However, SLTDA has decided to delay finalising these targets until a comprehensive data-gathering exercise is complete under the Tourism Satellite Accounting (TSA) framework. The move reflects a commitment to ensure that future goals are grounded in verified metrics rather than extrapolated historical data.
Speaking at a recent press briefing, Hewawasam highlighted the limitations of relying on surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014. “Those calculations were based on an exchange rate of around Rs.150 per US dollar,” he said. “With the rupee now trading at approximately Rs.300, and global travel spending patterns shifting post-pandemic, using decade-old base data is no longer viable.” The SLTDA is prioritising a modern, evidence-based approach that accounts for current economic conditions and international travel trends.
A key outcome of this recalibration is the adjustment of the estimated daily spend per tourist to roughly US $140. This figure comes from a rigorous 12-month survey involving a sample size of 10,000 visitors. The SLTDA is confident that the methodology used for the survey eliminates errors that previously affected projections, including miscounting expatriates travelling on foreign passports. Hewawasam assured that verification protocols are implemented at the point of data collection, covering both group tourists and free independent travellers to ensure accuracy in reported arrivals.
The authority also pointed out that the downward revision of tourist spending is not unique to Sri Lanka. Competing destinations have reported similar trends. In the Maldives, average spending per visitor has decreased from US $500 to US $300, while Thailand has seen figures drop from US $200 to under US $150. The SLTDA emphasised that these global trends reinforce the need for targets to be based on certified data rather than inflated historical estimates.
To complete the data-driven approach, the SLTDA is conducting a “leakage survey” to measure precisely how much foreign exchange is retained within the local economy. This analysis covers key sectors such as accommodation, dining, and other tourism services. Preliminary results are expected by the end of January, providing critical insights into how effectively the country captures the economic benefits of inbound tourism.
The full implementation of the Tourism Satellite Account will integrate inbound, outbound, and domestic tourism data, offering a comprehensive view of the sector’s true contribution to the economy. The domestic tourism component, conducted in collaboration with the Census and Statistics Department, is slated for completion in the third quarter of the year. Once completed, the TSA will serve as the definitive baseline for setting accurate, data-backed revenue targets for 2026.
Hewawasam stressed the importance of this methodology for both industry credibility and policymaking. “By moving to verified, scientific data, we can avoid the discrepancies of the past and set realistic goals that reflect true performance,” he said. The SLTDA aims to provide a transparent and consistent framework for stakeholders, including tourism operators, investors, and government agencies, enabling evidence-based decision-making and long-term planning.
This shift marks a significant evolution in Sri Lanka’s tourism strategy, signalling a move away from reliance on assumptions and outdated economic indicators. By prioritising scientifically validated data and rigorous verification protocols, the SLTDA is ensuring that the country’s tourism goals are not only realistic but also responsive to evolving global travel patterns. The approach is expected to strengthen investor confidence, improve policy precision, and provide a reliable roadmap for sustainable growth in the sector.
As the tourism industry continues to recover and adapt in a post-pandemic environment, the SLTDA’s focus on accurate, certified data will play a crucial role in informing marketing strategies, pricing decisions, and investment planning. The TSA framework promises to equip Sri Lanka with the tools needed to understand and optimise its tourism economy, supporting both domestic stakeholders and international visitors.