Sri Lanka’s tourism sector is showing signs of growth, but the country is projected to fall short of its 2025 tourist arrival and revenue targets, according to CT Smith Securities. Despite positive momentum, the sector faces challenges in reaching government-set goals.
CT Smith forecasts lower arrivals and revenue for Sri Lanka’s 2025 tourism sector.
Sri Lanka is expected to miss the ambitious 2025 tourism targets set by the government, with projected arrivals and revenue falling below official goals. The government had aimed for three million international arrivals and five billion US dollars in revenue this year. According to official data, tourist arrivals in the first eight months increased by 15 percent to 1.57 million, compared to 1.36 million in the same period last year. Revenue rose 5.7 percent to 2.29 billion US dollars during the same period, signaling steady sector growth.
CT Smith Securities highlighted that the positive performance demonstrates the sector’s growing momentum and long-term potential. However, their forecast projects only 2.4 million foreign visitors and earnings of 3.4 billion US dollars in 2025. The firm expects that the targets of three million arrivals and 4.3 billion US dollars in revenue will likely be achieved in 2026.
Tourism has historically been a significant contributor to Sri Lanka’s economy, accounting for nearly five percent of GDP at its peak in 2018. The sector has faced setbacks including the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the recent economic crisis. In the first half of 2025, tourism revenue contributed 6.3 percent of the country’s GDP, reflecting its resilience amid challenges.
CT Smith’s forecast underscores the need for strategic initiatives to accelerate growth and maximize revenue potential as Sri Lanka continues to rebuild its tourism sector post-crisis.