National Sales Average tea January 2026 declined on both a monthly and annual basis, reflecting weaker realised prices across all elevations, according to Forbes & Walker Research, as market pressure persisted despite mixed currency movements.
National Sales Average tea January 2026 slips month-on-month and year-on-year
Sri Lanka’s National Sales Average (NSA) for tea declined in January 2026 on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, indicating continued pricing pressure in the global tea market, according to data released by Forbes & Walker Research.
The NSA for January stood at Rs. 1,164.54 per kilogram, equivalent to 3.76 U.S. dollars, marking a decline of Rs. 37.04 and 0.13 dollars compared with December 2025. In the previous month, the average had been recorded at Rs. 1,201.58, or 3.89 dollars.
On a year-on-year basis, the January 2026 figure also reflected a contraction. Compared with January 2025, when the NSA averaged Rs. 1,185.43, or approximately 4 dollars, the latest data shows a reduction of Rs. 20.89 and 0.24 dollars. Analysts said the decline highlights sustained pressure on export realisations amid challenging global demand conditions.
High Grown teas recorded an average of Rs. 1,143.12, or 3.69 dollars, during January. This represented a month-on-month decline of Rs. 35.13 and 0.12 dollars from December levels. However, when compared with the same month last year, High Growns showed a rupee gain of Rs. 37.46, even as the dollar-denominated average slipped marginally by 0.04 dollars.
Market participants noted that the divergent movements between rupee and dollar terms reflect currency effects rather than underlying strength in international prices. While exchange rate fluctuations provided some cushion in local currency terms, export earnings remained under strain in dollar terms.
Medium Grown teas experienced a sharper correction during the month. The average for January stood at Rs. 987.40, or 3.19 dollars, representing a significant month-on-month decline of Rs. 61.49 and 0.20 dollars compared with December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, Medium Growns recorded a decrease of Rs. 50.65 and 0.31 dollars, marking the steepest contraction among the three elevations.
The performance of Medium Grown teas suggests softer demand conditions in key export markets, particularly for teas positioned in the mid-price segment. Traders said increased competition from other origins and cautious buying behaviour have contributed to the downward trend.
Low Grown teas, which typically command higher prices due to their flavour profiles and demand from traditional markets, also recorded a decline in January. The average stood at Rs. 1,221.63, or 3.95 dollars, down Rs. 36.62 and 0.12 dollars on a month-on-month basis.
Compared with January 2025, Low Growns declined by Rs. 33.97 and 0.29 dollars, reflecting a broad-based weakening across elevations. Despite maintaining the highest absolute price levels, Low Grown teas were not immune to the overall market correction.
Forbes & Walker Research noted that in dollar terms, all elevations recorded negative variances compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. This trend underscores the continued pressure on realised prices, even as rupee-denominated averages showed mixed movements due to currency dynamics.
Industry analysts said the decline in the national sales average tea January 2026 reflects a combination of global economic uncertainty, cautious importer sentiment and competitive supply from other producing countries. While Sri Lanka’s tea quality remains strong, pricing power has been constrained by external factors beyond producers’ control.
They added that the coming months will be closely watched for signs of stabilisation, particularly as supply patterns adjust and demand conditions evolve in key markets such as the Middle East, Russia and parts of Asia.
The NSA remains a critical indicator for the tea industry, influencing grower incomes, estate profitability and export earnings. Sustained weakness could have implications for upstream stakeholders, especially smallholders who are more sensitive to price fluctuations.
As the year progresses, market participants are hopeful that improved demand conditions and disciplined supply management could help support prices. However, the January performance suggests that near-term challenges persist for Sri Lanka’s tea sector.