Sri Lanka tourism could take more than a decade beyond the Government’s 2030 ambition to reach US$10 billion in annual visitor spending, with a new WTTC forecast pointing to slower organic growth through 2036.
Sri Lanka tourism faces a long-term gap as WTTC projects slower revenue growth
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects Sri Lanka’s international visitor spending to increase from US$3.73 billion in 2025 to US$4.49 billion in 2026 and US$6.46 billion by 2036. While the forecast represents substantial long-term growth, it remains US$3.54 billion below the Government’s US$10 billion tourism revenue target for 2030.
Based on the growth trajectory implied by the WTTC projections, Sri Lanka would only reach the US$10 billion mark around 2045 if the pace remains broadly unchanged. That would place the country roughly 15 years behind the original 2030 ambition and highlights the scale of the challenge facing policymakers and tourism businesses.
The gap is particularly significant given the sector’s performance in 2026. According to Central Bank of Sri Lanka data cited in the supplied report, tourism earnings declined 11.5 percent year-on-year to US$1.79 billion during the first seven months of the year. To achieve the revised US$4.2 billion earnings target for 2026, the sector would need to generate an average of around US$480 million per month during the remaining period.
The figures suggest that increasing visitor numbers alone may not be sufficient to deliver the revenue targets. For Sri Lanka tourism, the greater opportunity could lie in raising spending per visitor and developing higher-value tourism products capable of generating stronger economic returns.
The WTTC forecast provides an indication of that potential. Sri Lanka’s international visitor spending is projected to increase by 73 percent between 2025 and 2036, significantly faster than the Maldives, where visitor spending is forecast to rise by 31 percent. However, the Maldives is still expected to generate US$7.31 billion in visitor spending by 2036, compared with Sri Lanka’s US$6.46 billion.
Cambodia presents an even wider competitive gap. The Southeast Asian destination is projected to increase international visitor spending from US$4.58 billion in 2025 to US$9.39 billion by 2036, leaving it more than 45 percent ahead of Sri Lanka by the end of the forecast period.
Yet visitor spending tells only part of the story. WTTC’s broader measure of tourism’s economic contribution indicates that the sector has a much larger footprint within Sri Lanka’s domestic economy.
The total contribution of travel and tourism to Sri Lanka’s GDP is forecast to rise from US$9.92 billion in 2025 to US$11.12 billion in 2026 and US$16.62 billion by 2036. Over the same period, tourism’s share of the country’s overall GDP is projected to increase from 9.3 percent to 10.3 percent.
This broader measure includes direct tourism activity as well as indirect contributions through domestic supply chains, investment and other businesses supporting the sector. It also captures induced economic activity generated when tourism workers spend their incomes within the wider economy.
On this measure, Sri Lanka compares favourably with both the Maldives and Cambodia. Its total tourism GDP contribution in 2025 was nearly twice the Maldives’ US$5.22 billion and around 39 percent higher than Cambodia’s US$7.15 billion. By 2036, Sri Lanka’s projected contribution of US$16.62 billion is more than double the Maldives’ US$7.07 billion and around 20 percent higher than Cambodia’s US$13.9 billion.
The difference underlines an important feature of the Sri Lankan tourism industry: its economic benefits extend well beyond hotels and tourism receipts. Local agriculture, transport, retail, construction, food suppliers and other service providers can all benefit from tourism activity.
At the same time, the WTTC projections underline the need to address constraints that could limit the sector’s ability to expand. Globally, WTTC expects travel and tourism to grow by an average 3.6 percent annually through 2036, taking its contribution to the global economy to US$17.1 trillion, or 11 percent of global GDP.
WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara has highlighted labour shortages, skills gaps and restrictions affecting workforce mobility as challenges facing tourism markets. For Sri Lanka, strengthening hospitality training and developing a more skilled tourism workforce will become increasingly important as the industry seeks to move towards higher-value offerings.
Employment is expected to grow substantially. WTTC forecasts total travel and tourism employment in Sri Lanka to increase from 991,000 jobs in 2025 to 1.52 million by 2036.
Achieving that expansion will require more than additional hotel rooms. Improved connectivity, investment-friendly policies, workforce development, easier travel processes and stronger public-private partnerships will be critical to increasing the value generated by each visitor.
For Sri Lanka tourism, the WTTC forecast therefore presents both a warning and an opportunity. The US$10 billion ambition remains possible only if the industry can significantly accelerate revenue growth beyond its current trajectory. The immediate policy challenge is not simply to attract more tourists, but to build an ecosystem capable of encouraging longer stays, higher spending and greater participation by local businesses.
The WTTC findings, produced with Oxford Economics, show that Sri Lanka already has a substantial tourism economy. The challenge for the next decade is converting that economic base into stronger international tourism earnings — and closing the widening gap between the country’s ambitions and its projected organic growth.